Oral AS01-A052 - High-Resolution CMIP6 Projections of Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Indices over Trkiye
M. Tugrul Yilmaz
Middle East Technical University
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Abstract
This study analyzes the spatial and temporal changes of extreme climate indices across Türkiye for the 2015–2100 period. Using 1985–2014 as a reference, the research uses outputs from six global climate models (MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MRI-ESM2-0, EC-Earth3-Veg, HadGEM3-GC31-MM, CMCC-ESM2, and NorESM2-MM) under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The extreme climate indices, calculated at a high resolution of 3 km via the CLIMPACT package, reveal a significant transformation in Türkiye's climate regime toward the end of the century. Temperature extreme indices show a severe increase in both scenarios. A critical rise is observed in heatwave durations (HWD_TX90); the average across Türkiye increases from 7 days in the reference period to 34 days under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Regionally, the most extreme changes occur in the Aegean and Southeastern Anatolia regions, where durations rise from approximately 7 days to over 38 days. Additionally, the hottest day of the year (TXx) is expected to rise between 3.4°C and 4.8°C. On the precipitation side, total precipitation (PRCPTOT) is projected to decrease by 5.6% under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. However, the number of very heavy precipitation days (R20mm) shows a clear regional difference. While the Black Sea region shows an upward trend with an increase of about 9.9%, the Mediterranean and Southeastern Anatolia regions show a decrease of 8.9% and 1.5%, respectively. These findings show that Türkiye faces two different risks: longer and more intense droughts in the south, and more sudden, extreme rainfall events in the north. These results demonstrate that the region may face risks of both drought and sudden extreme precipitation in the coming period, highlighting the necessity of considering these extreme values in climate change adaptation planning.
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AS Oral FICC-411 04 August 2026
14:30 - 16:30
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