Jie Jiang is currently an associate professor at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP/CAS). She received her bachelor’s degree from Sun Yat-sen University in 2016 and her Ph.D. from IAP/CAS in 2021, where she has since continued her research career. Her research focuses on climate change detection and attribution, future climate projections, and climate impacts, with a particular emphasis on the Pan-Third Pole region, including the Tibetan Plateau and Central Asia. Dr. Jiang has published more than 40 peer-reviewed articles, including first-author papers in leading journals such as Nature and Nature Geoscience. She has received several notable honors, including the Xie Yibing Young Meteorological Science and Technology Award, the Future Earth Early-Career Fellowship, the IOP Publishing Top Cited Paper Award, and recognition as an Outstanding Reviewer by the American Geophysical Union. She currently serves as a member of the Responsible Data Use Task Team of WCRP/RIfS.
Anthropogenic forcings, such as greenhouse gas emissions and aerosol releases, combined with internal climate variability, jointly influence regional climate changes and impact other components of the climate system. On interdecadal to multidecadal timescales, internal variability, such as Pacific Decadal Variability and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, plays a particularly important role; their phase transitions can modulate regional climate for decades. Furthermore, changes in human activities, including evolving aerosol emission pathways, can create distinct long-term regional climate trends across different periods. Using High Mountain Asia as a case study, this report examines shifts in regional climate regimes and their associated circulation systems (e.g., the subtropical westerly jet and Asian monsoon), driven by both human activities and phase transitions in internal variability. It also introduces constrained projection methods for future regional climate change, explicitly accounting for the effects of changing aerosol emissions and internal variability phase transitions.