Responsive image Responsive image


SS01 – THE ASIAN MONSOON IN A CHANGING CLIMATE


Thu-02 Jul 2020 | 13:30 – 15:30 | Tower B, Lavender II

Krishnan RAGHAVAN
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology

“Behavior of Monsoon Droughts Over India in a Changing Climate”

Krishnan RAGHAVAN#+, T.P. SABIN, Ramarao M.V.S., J. SANJAY, Milind MUJUMDAR

Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology

Several areas of the Asian monsoon region have experienced significant precipitation changes since the second half of the twentieth century - which include the prominent reduction in monsoon rainfall over the Western Ghats and the Indo-Gangetic plains of north-central India, as well as the conspicuous drying trend over northern China. Climate modeling studies have linked the aforementioned decreases in monsoon precipitation, largely to the effects of northern hemispheric anthropogenic aerosol forcing. The observed decrease of monsoon precipitation over the Indian region has also led to higher frequency of droughts and an expansion of drought area since 1950. While the CMIP model projections indicate enhancement of mean monsoon rainfall over India in the future, they concurrently project an increase in the severity of droughts in response to the increased variability of monsoon precipitation, and increase in water vapor demand in a warmer atmosphere that would tend to decrease soil moisture. A future projection based on the RCP4.5 scenario using a high-resolution (grid size < 35 km, telescopically zoomed over South Asia) global climate model indicates that potential decreases of soil moisture over the Indian region can amplify the regional surface warming (~ 0.2oC per decade) during the second half of the 21st century.

Biography